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F. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON FUTURE HUMAN
MORTALITY Kalkstein (1986) estimated the potential effects of global warming on New York City. The study indicated that summer weather appears to have a significant impact on New York's present mortality rates, and a "threshold temperature" of 92deg.F was uncovered , suggesting that mortality increases quite rapidly when the maximum temperature exceeds this value. Days with low relative humidities appear to increase mortality most dramatically. Five climatic scenarios were developed to estimate New York's future wea ther assuming that warming does occur, and 'acclimatized" and "unacclimatized" mortality rates were estimated for each scenario. The unacclimatized rates were computed by utilizing New York's weather/mortality algorithm developed from the historical analy sis. Acclimatized rates were computed by selecting present-day "analog cities" which resemble New York's predicted future weather, and developing weather/mortality algorithms for them.